Foreign Condo Buying in Thailand Set to Fall 20% This Year

Foreign buyers weighing a Thai condominium purchase may find 2026 a more negotiable market. Kasikorn Research Center projects that overseas transfers of condo units will decline roughly 20% over the year, the first annual drop since travel reopened after the pandemic.

The slowdown matters because foreign demand has been one of the few reliable supports for the upper-tier Bangkok and resort condo segments since 2022. Chinese, Russian, Taiwanese and Burmese buyers have together accounted for the bulk of foreign transfers, with Chinese purchasers alone driving close to half in recent years. A pullback of this scale points to softer absorption at new launches and more standing inventory at completed projects, particularly in central Bangkok, Pattaya and Phuket.

Several pressures are converging. The Chinese economy remains uneven, with property losses at home making cross-border purchases less appealing. The baht has stayed relatively firm against major currencies, eroding the discount that drew yield-focused investors a few years ago. Resale liquidity in older foreign-quota stock has also tightened, making buyers more selective.

For incoming purchasers, the practical implications are straightforward. Developers sitting on unsold foreign-quota units are likely to extend furniture packages, absorb transfer fees and offer longer payment terms rather than cut headline prices. Secondary-market sellers, particularly individual investors looking to exit, may prove more flexible on price than primary developers.

The 49% foreign ownership cap per building remains unchanged, and there is no sign of the long-discussed reforms to extend leasehold tenure or raise the quota progressing in the near term. Buyers should therefore continue to verify available foreign quota before committing, especially in established central Bangkok buildings where the allocation has historically filled quickly.